Climate migration to Washtenaw County is underway. How can we prepare for it?

Numerous media reports have cast Michigan generally – and Washtenaw County communities specifically – as climate "refuges" or "havens." Not only is the state surrounded by fresh water and home to a more temperate climate than many states, but it also has a lower-than-average cost of living and a diverse set of employers and institutions, including agriculture, health care, and education, that draw talent from far and wide.

"We have access to the Great Lakes as a region," says Dr. Missy Stults, who leads sustainability efforts for the city of Ann Arbor. "Water is life. Humans won’t survive without it."

Municipalities in Washtenaw County are also frequently recognized for their efforts to invest in sustainability and climate action, such as the city of Ann Arbor's ​​A2ZERO plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.
Doug CoombeAnn Arbor Sustainability and Innovations Director Missy Stults.
"We are intentionally thinking about land-use patterns and attracting people who share these values," Stults says.

But is Washtenaw County prepared for an influx of new residents seeking relief from worsening climate change in other regions? We asked several local experts about what the community is doing to prepare, and what more needs to be done.

Drawing people in while serving those already here

While Michigan’s population is expected to decline overall over the next 25 years, Washtenaw County is planning for more people. And more people means more pressure on basic needs like housing and public infrastructure, which means the county's affordability challenges are unlikely to lessen even while new housing developments and upgrades like improved sidewalks and bike lanes are taking place.

Rachel Jacobson is an Ann Arbor-based member of the American Society of Adaptation Professionals, a nonprofit network of professionals working in climate change adaptation. She says Washtenaw County has a lot of climate-related amenities that attract people looking to relocate.

"People from afar might want to come to a place that doesn’t have as intense of negative impacts," Jacobson says. "Infrastructure in the greater region is built for a larger population, and we have a relative abundance of housing stock, with room to grow. People in the region and outside it who study it also see the Rust Belt as a place where there’s a lot of opportunity for growth, with strong bones that we can build in a way that is resilient to accommodate more people."

Local master planning is also likely to make the region even more attractive for those looking to match their values with where they decide to live, continuing to put pressure on the housing market and increasing the pressure to improve access to — and continue to increase the stock of — affordable housing. Stults says Ann Arbor city staff are currently "having really tough conversations" as they update the city's land use plan.
Doug CoombeAmerican Society of Adaptation Professionals member Rachel Jacobson.
"The first step is thinking about how you best serve existing residents and create space for additional folks to come in in a way that will be successful and without displacement," Stults says.

The United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines affordable housing as housing that costs no more than 30% of the occupant's income, including utilities. HUD determines housing assistance based on area median income, or AMI. In Washtenaw County, where the AMI is relatively high, the push is on both to build new affordable housing in lower-income areas and to increase participation in the Section 8 Housing Choice Voucher program, where people pay about 30-40% of their monthly household income for rent in privately-owned housing.

"We have had a lot of regional and economic segregation, and climate-related planning is an opportunity to bring us together to build something that works for everyone. We want to make this a better place for those who live here while we attract others to the region," Jacobson says.

Migration already under way

Local governments are working through both independent and collective planning efforts to make changes that account for future infrastructure needs, including housing. Whether it will be enough is hard to determine because humans have never faced anything like this before.

"We've never changed the entire composition of the atmosphere the way we are doing. We've never had these cascading impacts, which means we also have never solved these problems," Stults says.

Stults thinks climate-related migration to Washtenaw County is already happening, though how much is difficult to quantify, much less forecast.
Doug CoombeAnn Arbor Sustainability and Innovations Director Missy Stults. 
"We haven’t really started to quantify the climate factor, though large efforts have been made," she says. "We do know qualitatively, from talking with people, that we are in our second or third wave of climate migration to the county."

In fact, Stults considers herself part of Washtenaw County's "first wave" of climate migrants.

"I grew up in the Midwest and came back, then had a kid and realized I can't leave because I know too much about climate change," she says. "That’s a very intentional decision and I know a lot of people who work in the climate or sustainability field, or closely related fields, who are making decisions like this."

Affordability challenges

Other than people who chose to live in Michigan based on knowledge from their work in climate-related fields, extreme weather events may push a new wave of climate migrants toward Washtenaw County.

"I don't think people make the decision to move to Washtenaw County solely because of climate, but it may be a factor," says Jeff Roth, a licensed real estate agent in Ann Arbor who wrote a recent blog on the area's future as a "climate haven." "I had a client move from Oregon because of forest fires and air quality, but she also had family here and was looking for a lower cost of living."

While Washtenaw County is expensive for Michigan, the Midwest is still more affordable overall than many parts of the country. That’s why Roth thinks affordability is going to continue to be a challenge and climate migration is not going to help.
Doug CoombeArbor Advising founder and realtor Jeff Roth.
Roth also questions if there will be enough development to meet housing demand in general, and particularly whether there will be enough affordable development, in the county. He also thinks short-term rentals and investment properties will continue to drive up housing prices, especially in desirable areas.

"Over time, prices will continue to go up and challenge affordability," Roth says. "Young families can’t afford to live where they work, so they are driving to employers 30 miles away, which is not good for the environment." 

Roth sees potential in efforts to house people where services and jobs already are in the form of dense, transit-oriented developments, as well as accessory dwelling units, or ADUs.
Doug CoombeRachel Jacobson and Jeff Roth in Burns Park.
"If you already own a house, renting out a room is another way to contribute to lower cost for you and reasonable rent for someone else," he says.

Many solutions to climate migration in Washtenaw County are likely to be holistic and community-based.

"We can't stop someone who has enough money to buy that home next to you, raze it, and build a bigger one," Stults says. "We need to think about how we create systems and structures that make this the place we want it to be, including all the people we want to include, and really talk openly and actively about this."

Jenny Rose Ryan (she/they) is a writer, editor, and communications consultant who has more than 20 years of experience sharing complicated and compelling stories. She is based in Ypsilanti.

All photos by Doug Coombe.